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Election Market Odds vs. Polls: What a 70% Chance Means

TLDR — The last trade can differ from the price available now, while a favorite losing is only one observation—not a verdict on a forecast’s reliability....

Signal data─ Neutralconfidence 50%Low materiality
AssetEventsector-trendEvent timeAttention0 readers/hrNormalSmart readers0

The last trade can differ from the price available now, while a favorite losing is only one observation—not a verdict on a forecast’s reliability.... Read the full story at The Defiant

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